1. Executive Summary
All figures are indicative assumptions and require vendor quotes, engineering study, buyer qualification, and legal records.Investment Case
A lithium sulphate plant may be the lowest-cost refined lithium chemical route if Zimbabwe requires export of refined lithium products rather than spodumene concentrate.
Updated View: Viable Subject to Offtake and Technical Validation
Strategic Logic
The plant converts lithium concentrate into an intermediate lithium chemical product that can be sold to downstream converters producing lithium carbonate or hydroxide.
Main Remaining Concern
Regulatory fit is assumed confirmed. The major remaining risk is commercial: lithium sulphate has a narrower buyer base than lithium carbonate or hydroxide.
Offtake remains a gating item
Updated assumption: lithium sulphate is accepted as a refined chemical product for export. This reduces regulatory risk and increases the preliminary viability score from 68/100 to 76/100.
2. Investment Snapshot
Base case assumes USD 45M plant capex.Plant Capex
$45M
Base case within $40M–50M target range
Feed
25 ktpa
6% Li₂O spodumene concentrate
Output
5 ktpa
Lithium sulphate equivalent
Recovery
75%
Indicative overall recovery
Annual Revenue
$22.5M
Base price: $4,500/t product
EBITDA
$9.0M
Base case estimate
ROI
20%
EBITDA / capex
Payback
5.0 yrs
Before tax and financing
3. Capex Cost Breakdown
Table shows indicative low, base, and high total cost envelope by plant section.Capex Breakdown Chart
Cost Breakdown Table
| Section | Low | Base | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Concentrate handling and storage | $1.0M | $2.0M | $3.5M |
| Drying and feed preparation | $1.5M | $2.5M | $4.0M |
| Calcination kiln and cooler | $5.0M | $9.0M | $14.0M |
| Acid mixing and sulphation roast | $4.0M | $7.5M | $12.0M |
| Leaching circuit | $1.5M | $3.0M | $5.0M |
| Filtration and separation | $1.5M | $3.0M | $5.5M |
| Purification | $2.0M | $4.5M | $8.0M |
| Evaporation / crystallisation | $3.0M | $6.0M | $10.0M |
| Utilities and infrastructure | $2.5M | $5.0M | $8.5M |
| Environmental systems | $1.5M | $3.5M | $6.0M |
| EPCM, commissioning, contingency | $6.5M | $9.0M | $15.0M |
| Total Estimated Cost | $30.0M | $55.0M | $91.5M |
Note: The KPI base case uses a USD 45M optimized target capex. The detailed table shows a broader line-item cost envelope before final vendor quotations, package optimization, scope reduction, and EPC negotiation.
4. Process Flow
Hard-rock spodumene to lithium sulphate route.
6% Spodumene Concentrate→
Drying→
Calcination→
Milling→
Acid Mixing→
Sulphation Roast→
Water Leaching→
Filtration→
Purification→
Evaporation / Crystallisation→
Lithium Sulphate Product
5. Major Equipment Required
Indicative installed cost range by equipment group.| Equipment Group | Main Equipment | Estimated Cost | Importance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feed handling | Hoppers, conveyors, silos, weigh feeders, dust collectors | $1.0M–3.5M | Medium |
| Drying | Rotary dryer, burner, cyclone, baghouse | $1.5M–4.0M | Medium |
| Calcination | Rotary kiln, cooler, refractory, burner, off-gas system | $5M–14M | Critical |
| Milling | Ball mill / vertical mill, classifier, dust control | $1.2M–3.5M | Medium |
| Acid system | Sulphuric acid tanks, pumps, dosing, bunds, safety systems | $1M–3M | Critical |
| Sulphation roast | Acid mixer, pug mill, sulphation kiln/reactor, scrubber | $4M–12M | Critical |
| Leaching | Leach tanks, agitators, slurry pumps, heat exchangers | $1.5M–5M | High |
| Filtration | Thickener, filter press, clarifier, wash system | $1.5M–5.5M | High |
| Purification | Neutralisation tanks, reagent skids, precipitation reactors, polishing filters | $2M–8M | High |
| Product recovery | Evaporator, crystalliser, centrifuge, dryer, bagging | $4M–13.5M | High |
| Utilities | Power, boiler, air compressor, water treatment, firewater | $2.5M–8.5M | High |
| Environment | Scrubbers, ETP, residue handling, monitoring systems | $1.5M–6M | Critical |
6. ROI and Payback Analysis
Change assumptions inside JavaScript section to update model.Scenario ROI
ROI Scenario Table
| Scenario | Revenue | EBITDA | ROI | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weak Case | $15M | $3M | 6.7% | 15.0 years |
| Conservative | $18M | $5M | 11.1% | 9.0 years |
| Base Case | $22.5M | $9M | 20.0% | 5.0 years |
| Strong Case | $30M | $14M | 31.1% | 3.2 years |
| Upside Case | $37.5M | $19M | 42.2% | 2.4 years |
Payback Requirement
| Target Payback | Required Annual EBITDA on $45M Capex |
|---|---|
| 3 years | $15.0M/year |
| 4 years | $11.25M/year |
| 5 years | $9.0M/year |
| 6 years | $7.5M/year |
| 8 years | $5.6M/year |
Sensitivity Matrix
| Product Price / Recovery | 65% | 75% | 85% |
|---|---|---|---|
| $3,000/t | Weak | Tight | Possible |
| $4,500/t | Tight | Base | Good |
| $6,000/t | Possible | Strong | Excellent |
7. Viability Scorecard
Updated score assumes lithium sulphate export eligibility is confirmed.Overall Viability Score
76 / 100
Viable subject to offtake and technical validation
The project is more attractive after confirming regulatory acceptance. However, full investment should still depend on buyer offtake, product quality, recovery, impurity profile, capex quotes, acid supply, and power reliability.
Viability Criteria
| Criteria | Score | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Feed availability | Needs mine validation | |
| Plant technology | Proven but complex | |
| Capex affordability | High for small project | |
| Product sellability | Requires offtake | |
| Regulatory fit | Confirmed: lithium sulphate accepted as refined chemical for export | |
| ESG and permitting | Acid and residue risk |
Investment gate: lithium sulphate export eligibility is assumed confirmed. Do not commit to full EPC before receiving buyer acceptance, product specification approval, pilot recovery results, binding offtake terms, and environmental approvals.
8. Risk Register
Updated risk register with export legality reduced to low risk.| Risk | Description | Rating | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export legality | Lithium sulphate is assumed confirmed as an export-eligible refined chemical. | Low | Maintain written government/legal confirmation and monitor policy changes. |
| Offtake risk | Limited buyer base compared with carbonate or hydroxide. | Critical | Secure binding offtake or strategic buyer before EPC. |
| Feed grade risk | Lower Li₂O grade reduces output and ROI. | High | JORC/NI 43-101 drilling and bulk sample testwork. |
| Recovery risk | Poor calcination or leaching recovery can damage economics. | High | Pilot testing and process guarantee from vendor. |
| Acid handling risk | Sulphuric acid logistics, storage, and safety issues. | High | Proper acid systems, bunds, SOPs, emergency plan. |
| Power reliability | Kilns, mills, and evaporators need stable power. | High | Captive power, backup generators, energy study. |
| Environmental risk | SOx, acid mist, residue, water discharge, tailings. | High | Scrubbers, ETP, residue plan, EIA approval. |
| Capex overrun | $40M–50M estimate may increase after engineering. | High | FEED study, fixed-price EPC packages, contingency. |
| Product quality | Impurities may make product difficult to sell. | High | Impurity testing, purification design, buyer qualification. |
| Market price risk | Lithium product prices can be highly volatile. | Medium | Conservative price deck and long-term contracts. |
9. Investment Checklist
Recommended before capital commitment.Technical Due Diligence
| Item | Status |
|---|---|
| Confirm ore mineralogy: spodumene vs petalite/lepidolite | Required |
| Confirm average Li₂O grade and mine life | Required |
| Bulk sample beneficiation test | Required |
| Calcination and acid roast testwork | Required |
| Recovery and impurity profile | Required |
| Vendor process guarantee | Needed |
Commercial and Legal Due Diligence
| Item | Status |
|---|---|
| Written confirmation of lithium sulphate export eligibility | Confirmed |
| Binding offtake term sheet | Critical |
| Delivered cost to buyer or port | Required |
| Tax, royalty, and FX repatriation review | Required |
| EIA and acid handling permits | Required |
| Financing and working capital plan | Needed |
10. Board Recommendation
With regulatory acceptance confirmed, the lithium sulphate plant should be treated as a viable but still conditional investment opportunity.
Recommended decision: Proceed to FEED, pilot testwork, buyer qualification, and offtake negotiation
| Decision Gate | Minimum Requirement | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Gate 1: Mine validation | Confirmed lithium mineralogy, grade, tonnage, and mine life. | Required |
| Gate 2: Process validation | Pilot test proves recovery, impurity removal, and product quality. | Required |
| Gate 3: Legal validation | Government/legal confirmation that lithium sulphate can be exported. | Confirmed |
| Gate 4: Commercial validation | Buyer accepts specification and signs offtake term sheet. | Critical |
| Gate 5: Financial validation | Base case payback below 5 years and downside case remains survivable. | Pending |